Australia politics live: more than a quarter of mortgage holders at risk of mortgage stress after ten rate rises, research finds | Australian politics

And what about the arguments that small business won’t be able to afford to give its workers a payrise (unions are advocating for a wage increase in line with inflation with the fair work commission)

Sally McManus says:

Small business are also doing way better than minimum wage workers. There is 20% increase in their profits which isn’t as big as big business who are really doing well and unfortunately are doing well at a time when people are really feeling the pain.

We also see a record low number of bankruptsies and a record increase in the number of new businesses opening. Businesses whether they be small or large can cope with this pay increase. It is a much bigger risk to small business if people who buy from their shops have even less money to spend, if you don’t have healthy people, you don’t have a healthy economy.

RBA ‘should stop increasing interest rates’, Sally McManus says

ACTU secretary Sally McManus was speaking to the ABC and was asked about the RBA review which Jim Chalmers will receive tomorrow. There have been suggestions a workers’ representative is added to the board, with some people saying that person should be McManus.

What does she think about what needs to happen with the board?

Firstly, the RBA definitely needs shaking up. There is a narrow group of people on the board. Whenever you have people with a narrow set of experiences and they’re not representing or have the perspective of the whole of community, they are going to have blind spots.

The biggest blind spot, or inability to understand what is happening with wages, they have been wrong every time, they tried to predict wage increases.

That is a bad thing because they base those predictions on what they do. That is because they don’t have anyone who actually understands what is going on. That is a big problem.

They should stop increasing interest rates. It is already hurting people far too much. As we can see, inflation is coming down as it is around the world, simply because the supply chain issues are resolving themselves.

The other issue is that some companies are putting up prices more than they need to.

This is also a problem around the world because of the concentration of some big businesses and it would be really good if there was calling out of that particular issue rather than saying to workers you shouldn’t ask for pay rises.

People on welfare increasingly worse off, Antipoverty Centre finds

The Antipoverty Centre, which advocates for those living in poverty, with researchers, advocates and activists who have direct, contemporary experience of poverty and unemployment, have been calling for an increase to Centrelink payments since its establishment in May 2021.

They report that things are worse than ever for people on welfare.

25.3% of mortgage holders at risk of mortgage stress

Meanwhile, new research from polling company Roy Morgan shows an estimated 1.23m mortgage holders (25.3%) were at risk of mortgage stress.

(At risk is judged as spending 25% to 45% depending of income on the mortgage.)

The number of Australians ‘at risk’ of mortgage stress has increased by 514,000 over the last year as the RBA increased interest rates for 10 consecutive monthly meetings. Official interest rates are now at 3.6% in March 2023, the highest official interest rates since June 2012 over a decade ago.

It’s still below the GFC, but it is getting there.

Acoss’s cost of living report paints dire picture of poverty in Australia

Cost of living relief may be the focus of the government’s budget, and Jim Chalmers also told Patricia Karvelas that Katy Gallagher is reviewing Sam Mostyn’s women’s equality report (which recommended allowing single parents to stay on the parenting payment until their youngest child was 16).

But those living on jobseeker and associated payments were already in poverty before inflation became an issue. And the Australian Council of Social Service’s latest cost of living report paints a dire picture for people trying to survive on jobseeker ($18,000 a year) and youth allowance ($15,000 a year).

Not that it should be a surprise. None of this is new.

Among the cost of living report key findings:

68% are eating less or skipping meals while 81% are cutting back on meat, fresh fruit, vegetables and other fresh items.

68% have had difficulty getting medication or medical care due to the increased cost of living. 99% said that the inability to cover the cost of living harmed their mental health and 94% said it harmed their physical health.

93% of people renting privately are in rental stress, paying more than 30% of their income on rent. 75% have received a rent increase in the past 12 months, with 50% reporting a rise of $30 or more a week.

76% said they use their car less than normal, and a further 11% don’t use their car at all.

Jim Chalmers says he will announce RBA governor Dr Phil Lowe’s decision in the middle of the year – after the review is done.

Chalmers hopes for bipartisanship on RBA review

Jim Chalmers will receive the review into the Reserve Bank tomorrow. He says he will be releasing its report in April, along with some of the actions the government intends on taking.

But that will be well before the budget. And he is hoping for some bipartisanship.

I think people do understand how critically important the decisions taken by the independent Reserve Bank are and so we need to give the RBA the best possible basis to make those decisions. And one of the things that we’ve tried to do throughout is we see this as a bipartisan opportunity will see this as an opportunity for some bipartisanship.

What I’ve done is made sure that the panel hasn’t just kept me up to speed on their thinking and across their thinking but also the opposition and also the crossbench as well and I’ve got my differences with Angus Taylor, but I do want to say that he has been engaging with this Reserve Bank review panel in good faith and I appreciate that.

Because ideally, we would come at the recommendations when they’re available in a bipartisan way this should be beyond politics. it should be about the best Reserve Bank that we can possibly have for our country, no matter who’s in government.

‘One of our highest priorities is to get wages moving again’

Does Jim Chalmers think that the union call for minimum wages to match inflation is fair?

Chalmers says:

Our submission will be consistent with our values and our policies and our objectives and one of our highest priorities is to get wages moving again in meaningful and sustainable ways.

I think it’s common sense to prioritise the lowest paid as you go about that. You know, some people might pretend that we’ve got an inflation problem in our economy because the lowest-paid Australians are getting paid too much and that is obviously absolute rubbish.

We’ve got an inflation problem because of a war in Ukraine combined with neglected supply chains over a wasted decade, which has made us more vulnerable to some of these price shocks. So we don’t have high inflation because low-paid workers are being paid too much.

We have said consistently since before the election and certainly after the election as well, that we don’t want to see the lowest paid economy go backwards.

‘Cost-of-living relief is the priority,’ Chalmers says

Treasurer Jim Chalmers is on ABC radio RN National speaking inflation.

He says inflation seems to be moderating “in welcome ways” but understands that people are still feeling the impacts.

But does that mean there is help coming in the budget?

We have said throughout that when we can afford to provide a bit more help for people, Then we will look to do that.

He says he has received the economic inclusion report (that looked at the levels of Australia’s welfare payments) and is going through it:

Cost-of-living relief is the priority.

Constitutional alteration legislation

The constitutional alteration for the Indigenous voice to parliament will be introduced into parliament fairly early this morning.

It goes straight to a parliamentary committee, where recommendations for improvement will be made – but it will be down to the government whether or not any recommendations are accepted. Expect to hear a final decision from the Coalition on what it will do, once that process is done. (Although it is hard to see it shifting from no.)

Katter gathers support for bone marrow registry funding

Bob Katter is gathering support for his campaign to have funding allocated to the Australian Bone Marrow Registry.

Kooyong independent MP Dr Monique Ryan, Labor MP Dr Mike Freelander and LNP MP Bert van Manen are coming together to call for government funding to help the bone marrow donor registry expand its donor base.

Mark Butler has already said it is something he is looking at but Katter wants things to move faster.

Good morning

Labor on track for minority government in NSW

Labor appears unlikely to form majority government in NSW, reports Australian Associated Press, with the party sitting on 45 seats and falling behind in three of the remaining four seats still in doubt.

The ABC has called Miranda for Liberal incumbent Eleni Petinos and the seat of Kiama for independent Gareth Ward, who faces rape and indecent assault charges.

Ward, who denies the allegations, on Wednesday thanked his supporters for an election victory that “may have seemed impossible to some”.

The former Liberal MP appeared in court on Tuesday, pleading not guilty to several charges of sexual assault.

Labor needs two more seats to reach the 47 needed to form a majority government. The party remains ahead in Ryde but trails in Goulburn, Holsworthy and Terrigal.

With minority government now the most likely result, crossbench MPs are in a position to make demands in return for their support of a Labor government. Read our report here:

Voice bill

A proposal to alter the words of the Australian constitution to enshrine an Indigenous voice will be presented to federal parliament today, Australian Associated Press reports.

The attorney-general, Mark Dreyfus, will introduce the bill on Thursday, setting the wheels in motion for a referendum this year.

Parliament finalised the rules surrounding the distribution of referendum information and political donations last week, modernising laws that were last used for the republic vote in 1999.

Dreyfus said the legislation would give Australians the power to change the constitution to recognise Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people and establish a voice to parliament:

We want all members of the Australian parliament to support this referendum including every member of the crossbench and all members of the Liberal party and we’re very hopeful that there will be that support.

Alongside members of the government’s referendum working group last week, the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, released the proposed words to be put to the Australian people.

The proposed question is: “A Proposed Law: to alter the constitution to recognise the First Peoples of Australia by establishing an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander voice. Do you approve this proposed alteration?”

The opposition leader, Peter Dutton, has not yet revealed whether the Liberal party will support the voice.

Since the release of the proposed wording, Dutton has called on the government to publish advice from the solicitor general on the provision that the voice would make representations to executive government.

Albanese said the wording was backed by leading constitutional law experts including former high court chief justice Robert French and academic Anne Twomey.

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